Archive for July, 2010

Forex trading Long term trend determination

Friday, July 30th, 2010

Make sizzling profits from Forex, Trading with TREND

The TREND is your friend; trade against the trend at your own peril.

If you want to make money in forex trading, you must have a good understanding of  the TREND otherwise you are not going to make any head way. If you were swimming in the river you would know that it is much easier to swim with the current than to swim against the current. Regardless of how long term market trend is, the market never moves only in the direction of the trend, there are always minor movements against the major market trend. These deviations usually don’t last very long and after that time the market moves again in the direction of the long-term trend. However it is those minor movements that will produce losing trades.

What is a Trend?

A trend is the direction of movement of the market. It could be an upward (Rising) trend or downward (falling) trend. There are different ways of determining the major trend of a forex market. Here we shall deal with Lower Lows/Lower Highs for a downward trend and Higher Highs/Higher Lows for and upward trend.

Lower Lows and Lower Highs (Downward Trend)

In using this technique to determine whether the forex market is in a downward trend we use the Highs and Lows of the famous candle sticks. Every new low is lower than the previous low. Likewise every new high is lower than the previous high.

The setup:

There are series of candles moving downward.

After hitting a low L1 it reverses.

Rises upward with series of candles but not up to the previous high H1 and reverses again and moves downward.

Downward movement continues falling below L1, thus forming a new low L2.

The market rises again and reaching a high H2, lower than H1 and then falls again to a new low L3 . This is a picture of lower lows/lower highs (downward trend).

lower lows and lower highs

In a downward trend you only look forward to selling (the trend is your friend)

Higher Highs and Higher Lows (Upward Trend)

In using this technique to determine whether the forex market is in an upward trend we use the highs and lows of the famous candle sticks. Every new high is higher than the previous high. In like manner every new low is higher than the previous low.

The setup:

There are series of candles moving upward

After hitting a high H1 it reverses.

Falls down with series of candles gets to a low L1 and reverses and begins an upward moves again with series of candles and reaching a new high H2 higher than H1, then reverses, moves in the opposite direction and gets to a low L2 higher than L1.
higher highs and higer lows

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Forex trading strategies

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Does your forex trading system lose money? It is time for a huge change in your trading. You need very good forex trading strategies and systems in order to succeed in this business of forex trading. You now have the ability to learn how to trade from a full time forex trader and start to identify high profitability trading setups.

Trading price action to me is the best. Once you get a hold of it “price action”   consistent money making is not far fetched. There is no 100% profitable forex trading system or forex trading strategy though, but if you have a 70-80 percent accurate forex trading system or forex trading strategy, then you are on the verge of success.

A forex trading system or forex trading strategy with a good winning percentage will be rewarding psychologically, keeps your morale and confidence high and is enjoyable to trade. A string of profits will build your confidence. In search of a forex trading system or forex trading strategy with no losing trades? Forget forex trading and find another business. My goal is to keep losses small and wins should be larger than losses.

A forex trading system is a combination of either two or more technical indicators or fundamental indicators or both (fundamental and technical indicators) to determine to a greater extent the movement of the market.

One thing for sure, you can count on these tested trading systems to select the right entries and exits. Continuous and careful usage brings about mastery. You will be able to see patterns and formations over time.

Let’s see this simple but powerful trading system that I have been using profitably over the years.

Setting up our platform

We will be using:

Bollinger bands set to Period 20 Deviations 2

Stochastic Oscillator set to %K 9 period %D 3 period Slowing 3

Any time frame and all currency pairs.

I discovered long time ago that the combination of Trend and Oscillator indicators makes a wonderful and more profitable forex trading system or forex trading strategy.

If I was selling this to you, I would have given you a 30 days money back guarantee, but fortunately for you I am giving it out for free, so thank your star for been here. Let’s move on.

Do you still remember how to insert indicators as taught in our introductory class?

Well, let’s just freshen things up.

Click on the insert menu from your platform menu bar

Highlight Indicators, highlight Trend click on Bollinger Bands

Set period to 20, shift to 0 and Deviation to 2, you may want to change the color of your bands by clicking on the down arrow of the styles and thickness as well. Finally click on OK

Once you are done with that, go to Insert again Highlight Indicators, highlight Oscillators click on Stochastic Oscillator set %K period to 9, period %D to 3 and Slowing to 3.

Your chart should look like the one below

Fig.forex trading system.

Candle patterns:

Bearish engulfing pattern. Occurs in an uptrend and is suggesting a possible downward (sell) change in direction. You can see the first candle been completely swallowed up by the second candle.

Now if you studied your pattern very well you should know that the red (white) candle is bearish candle and the green (black) is the bullish candle. You can always change the colors to suit you by right clicking on your forex trading platform and then clicking on properties and making the necessary changes, then OK.

Fig. bearish engulfing pattern.

Bullish engulfing pattern. Occurs in downtrend and is suggesting a possible upward (buy) change in direction. You can see the first candle been completely swallowed up by the second candle.

Fig. bullish engulfing pattern

Pin formation:


Fig. pin formation

If you are at a loss on these candle formations, I will advise that you visit

www.onlinetradingconcepts.com to learn more and dash back here again.

If still at a loss after your visit to the above site, leave your questions using the comment

The Setup

Looking to sell:

1) The first thing we are looking for is a very near touch of the upper Bollinger bands

If that is established

we then

2) Check the Stochastic to see if it is in over bought region i.e. over the 80 line.

Entry Confirmation: Be on the look out for a pin or bearish candle pattern formation.

Once it forms, pull the trigger with the stops at the previous

Fig. Sell setup click on it for a larger view

Looking to buy:

1) The first thing we are looking for is a very near touch of the lower Bollinger bands

If that is established

we then

2) Check the Stochastic to see if it is in over sold region i.e. below the 20 line.

Entry Confirmation: look out for the formation of a pin or a bullish engulfing pattern.

Once any of them forms, pull the trigger with stops at the previous low.

Fig. buy setup click on it for a larger view

Do more search on other candle patterns to learn more and be more armed.

Note: Always wait for the candle pattern to close before entering the market.

We shall study another system once you are okay with this.

Meanwhile go to the forex trading tips section to learn more successful trading tips, while you apply this trading system.

Forex trading tips

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Forex Trading Tips

2. Don’t go in unarmed.Take the time to develop a solid trading system and find out that the secret to trading
success lies in hard work and constant learning.

3. Learn to use stops.

Respect your stops and don’t move them. Hoping

that market will turn in your direction is a very delusive hope.

4. Always take a look at the time frame larger than the one you’ve chosen to trade with. It gives the bigger picture of market price movements and thus helps to clearly define the trend. For example, when trading with 15 minute time frame, take a look at 1 hour charts. In the same way:

trading with 1 hour charts would require obtaining a picture of daily, weekly price movements. If a trend in Forex is
hard to spot; choose a bigger time frame. Up and down market patterns are always present. Make sure you know the dominant trend, unless you are a scalper.

5. Embrace money management. Even with the same trading system 2 traders can get opposite results in the long run. The difference will be again in the money management

approach.
6. Trade calm.Don’t try to revenge after losing a trade.

7. Choose the time frame that is right for you.

8. If you don’t know the direction of the market stay out. If it is not clear where the market will move don’t trade.

9. Trend is your friend. Trade with the trend to maximize your chances to succeed.

10. Always analyze the market before placing any trade.Any attempt to trade without analysis and studying the market is equal to a gambling

11. Think about risk/reward ratio before entering each trade. It should always be 1:2 or 1:3

12. Greed is an enemy, keep it at arms length.

13. Let your profits run. Let your position be open for as long as the market wishes to reward you.
14. Cut your losses short. It’s better to finish unprofitable trade quickly than wait for the situation to get worse. Don’t put a stop loss too far it’s your money you risk. Better calculate the best spot to enter when a potential loss would be minimized. Again: respect your stop and don’t move it “cherishing hopes”.

15. You must not trade daily. Only trade when your system gives you the go ahead.

16. A signaling bar/candle on the chart must be fully formed and closed before you enter a trade.

17. Do not Use a highly leveraged account, it comes at a cost.

18. Learn to measure trading success by the end of the day, week and then month and year.
19. Never invest money into a real Forex account until you practice on a Forex Demo account! Allow at least 2
to 3 months

Technical Analysis

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Technical analysis is the process of market analysis that relies only on market data numbers – quotes, charts, simple and complex indicators, volume of supply and demand, past market data, etc. The main idea behind Forex technical analysis is the postulate of functional dependence of the future market technical data on the past market technical data. As well as with fundamental analysis, technical analysis is believed to be self-sufficient and you can use only it to successfully trade Forex. In practice, both analysis methods are used.

We shall see how to put this to use in our forex trading strategies class

Fundamental Analysis

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Fundamental analysis is the process of market analysis which is done regarding only “real” events and macroeconomic data which is related to the traded currencies. Fundamental analysis is used not only in Forex but can be a part of any financial planning or forecasting. Concepts that are part of Forex fundamental analysis: overnight interest rates, central banks meetings and decisions, any macroeconomic news, global industrial, economical, political and weather news. Fundamental analysis is the most natural way of making Forex market forecasts. In theory, it alone should work perfectly, but in practice it is often used in pair with technical analysis.

In practice, traders use fundamental analysis in conjunction with technical analysis to determine a Forex trading strategy, fundamental analysis is considered to be the opposite of technical analysis.

Economic Calendar

Economic calendar is created by economist.This calendar contains different informations in this format: visit www.forexfactory.com for daily  economic news

Date     Time     Currency    Impact     Detail      Actual      Forcast   Previous

How to read Forex Economic Calendar

Impact factor — suggests how much influence current economic data is expected to bring along.

Red means High Impact

Orange means Medium impact

Yellow means Low impact

It is important to know the time of High impact data release if you trade affected currency pair.
During actual news release market becomes volatile. The strength of the volatility depends on the “factor of surprise” brought in the news.
“Factor of surprise” can be defined as a level of unexpectedness, where traders compare Forecast data to Actually released data.

Medium impact economic data should also be kept in mind in case the factor of surprise turns to be high. Low impact data most of the time do not shift Forex market significantly.

Column Previous in Forex Calendar — provides data from last release.
Column Forecast indicates numbers that economists are predicting and expecting for the upcoming release today.
Column Actual is updated only after the data is out. At the very second when data becomes available it is instantly compared against Forecast values, and depending on overall positiveness or negativeness of the news for the currency plus taking into consideration the factor of surprise, price dips or rises in a matter of seconds.

If the Actual is green in color, it means that the actual is better than the forcast. If it is red, then it means that actual is worse than forcast.

Economic News impact — increased market volatility — usually lasts for 1-3 minutes (highest volatility); next 5-10 minutes market experiences corrective/adaptive volatility, where price settles in summarizing new market shift.

How to trade with fundamental analysis:

If you are trading with fundamental analysis, it is expected that you often trade a weak currency against a strong currency. for instance if you are trading EURUSD and if prior to a high impact economic data release for both currency  one of the pair say EUR is weak and USD strong, then a worse high impact actual data release for EUR or a better high impact actual data release for USD will result the  selling off EUR and buying USD. In other in this scenario you will sell

Forex Technical Indicators

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

Welcome back. You are here because you placed that trade and you are seeing some positive and negative values without you knowing why. Sit tight and learn.

In forex trading; profitable trading is a function of good analysis. You don’t just enter a trade (buy or sell) because you want to but because the market is asking you to. Now for you to know when the market is asking you to enter a trade (buy or sell) is only after you have run an analysis of the market. There are two types of analysis, technical and fundamental analysis. Let’s deal with them individually.

Forex Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements and future market trends through the study of past market action which take into account price of instruments, numbers – quotes, charts, indicators, volume of supply and demand, past market data, e.t.c. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis is focused with what has actually happened in the Forex market, rather than what should happen. Technical analysis involves the use of technical indicators to determine price movement. There are many types of technical indicators. No don’t walk away; you don’t need to know all the indicators. You only need to understand 2 or 3 of these technical indicators and you will be more than fine and excellent in your trading.

The main idea behind Forex technical analysis is the postulate of functional dependence of the future market technical data on the past market technical data. As well as with fundamental analysis, technical analysis is believed to be self-sufficient and you can use only it to successfully trade Forex. In practice, both analysis methods are used.

FOREX INDICATORS

Indicators are used for identifying, or even creating patterns from the chaos of the currency market. In all cases, they receive the raw market data as the basic input, and manipulate it in differing ways to create actionable trading scenarios. The natural consequence of this description is that indicators are not tools of prediction.  Instead, they are used to give order to the price data, so that it is possible to identify possible opportunities which can be exploited profitably by the trader. Indicators must be used with an appropriate money management strategy in order to deliver the desired results.

There are many different kinds of indicators (be it technical or fundamental) , and it is not at all a hard task to define one’s own tools for the purpose of evaluating the market provided that a basic literacy in averages is attained, what is desired from the created indicator is made clear. Different constructions will lead to differing techniques which can then be employed most effectively as part of a forex trading system/strategy.

So you can regard indicators as your compass and ruler in navigating waves of the forex market. We would use a compass or a ruler to predict when or where a storm will hit, but every sailor knows their usefulness in defining a path over the high seas. Use your indicators to plan your journeys in forex, while protecting your funds with proper money management techniques, and all will be well for you.

In order to simplify the different things that Forex indicators can do for an individual, please review over the different activities that these indicators have the ability to perform. Understanding the different things that these indicators can perform are essential to understanding why so many people are keen to having these to assist them with currency trading.

You just dash to http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com to study indicators such as  MACD, Stochastic oscillator, Bollinger band,Supports,Resistant and moving averages and dash back for the remainder of the class. Study the under listed topics there.They are well explained with diagrams. Get some fun there and come back.

Stochastic Oscillator indicates both the oversold and the overbought conditions on a scale of 0-100%. During up-trends the closing prices will concentrate on period ranges for the higher part of the trade. However, during the downtrend the closing prices near an extremely low level on the periods range. These indicators will help you correctly decipher the up trends as well as the down trends of the Forex market.

Stochastic Fast

Stochastic Fast plots the location of the current price in relation to the range of a certain number of prior bars (dependent upon user-input, usually 14-periods). In general, stochastics are used to measure overbought and oversold conditions. Above 80 is generally considered overbought and below 20 is considered oversold. The inputs to Stochastic Fast are as follows:

  • Fast %K: [(Close - Low) / (High - Low)] x 100
  • Fast %D: Simple moving average of Fast K (usually 3-period moving average)

Stochastic Slow

Stochastic Slow is similar in calculation and interpretation to Stochastic Fast. The difference is listed below:

  • Slow %K: Equal to Fast %D (i.e. 3-period moving average of Fast %K)
  • Slow %D: A moving average (again, usually 3-period) of Slow %K

The Stochastic Slow is generally viewed as superior due to the smoothing effects of the moving averages which equates to less false buy and sell signals.

Stochastics Buy & Sell Signals

Stochastics Buy Signal

When the Stochastic is below the 20 oversold line and the %K line crosses over the %D line, buy.

Stochastics Sell Signal

When the Stochastic is above the 80 overbought line and the %K line crosses below the %D line, sell.

How to Insert stochastic oscillator unto forex trading platform.

1)      click on insert on your menu bar

2)      Place your mouse pointer on indicators

3)      Scroll to oscillators and place your pointer on it

4)      Locate and click on stochastic oscillator. Set your %k, %D and slowing values and click on OK. Do you notice anything? Yes you should see a blue and red curvy lines at the bottom of your chart graded 0 20 80 100. If you don’t please go over the process again.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands is a versatile tool combining moving averages and standard deviations and is one of the most popular technical analysis tools available for traders. There are three components to the Bollinger Band indicator:

  1. Moving Average: By default, a 20-period simple moving average is used.
  2. Upper Band: The upper band is usually 2 standard deviations (calculated from 20-periods of closing data) above the moving average.
  3. Lower Band: The lower band is usually 2 standard deviations below the moving average.

There are three main methodologies for using Bollinger Bands, discussed in the following sections:

  1. Playing the Bands
  2. Bollinger Band Breakouts
  3. Option Volatility Strategies

Playing the Bollinger Bands

Playing the bands is based on the premise that the vast majority of all closing prices should be between the Bollinger Bands. That stated, then a stock’s price going outside the Bollinger Bands, which occurs very rarely, should not last and should “revert back to the mean”, which generally means the 20-period simple moving average. A version of this strategy is discussed in the book Trade Like a Hedge Fund by James Altucher.

Buy Signal

In the example shown in the chart below, a trader buys or buys to cover when the price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band.

Sell Signal

The sell or buy to cover exit is initiated when the stock, future, or currency price pierces outside the upper Bollinger Band.

These buy and sell signals are graphically represented in the chart of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures contract shown below:

More Conservative Playing the Bands

Rather than buying or selling exactly when the price hits the Bollinger Band, the more aggressive approach, a trader could wait and see if the price moves above or below the Bollinger Band and when the price closes back inside the Bollinger Band, then the trigger to buy or sell short occurs. This helps to reduce losses when prices breakout of the Bollinger Bands for a while. However, many profitable opportunities would be lost.

Also, some traders exit their long or short entries when price touches the 20-day moving average.

A different, and quite polar opposite way to use Bollinger Bands is described on the next page, Playing Bollinger Band Breakouts.

Bollinger Band Breakouts

Basically the opposite of “Playing the Bands” and betting on reversion to the mean is playing Bollinger Band breakouts. Breakouts occur after a period of consolidation, when price closes outside of the Bollinger Bands.

The chart below shows two such Bollinger Band breakouts:

Bollinger Band Breakout through Resistance Buy Signal

Price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band after a period of price consolidation. Other confirming indicators are suggested, such as resistance/support being broken

Bollinger Band Breakout through Support Sell Signal

Price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band. It is suggested that other confirming indicators be used, such as a support line being broken, such as on www.onlintradingconcepts.com

This strategy is discussed by the man who created Bollinger Bands, John Bollinger.

Bollinger Bands can also be used to determine the direction and the strength of the trend. The chart below of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures contract shows a strong upward trend:

How to Insert Bollinger Bands unto your forex trading platform

1)      Click on insert from you’re your menu bar

2)      Place your mouse pointer on indicators

3)      Scroll to trend and place your mouse pointer on it

4)      Click on Bollinger bands

5)      Click on parameters

Change period to 20, Deviations to 2, Apply to : close, choose the color  and thickness of your bands from styles and click on OK.

You should see some lines on your chart otherwise make sure you go through the process correctly.

Now I can see somebody adjusting his seat because all these are beginning to make sense. Go ahead and adjust your no one is stopping you.

MACD

The MACD indicator is one of the most popular technical analysis tools. There are three main components of the MACD shown in the picture below:

  1. MACD: The 12-period exponential moving average (EMA) minus the 26-period EMA.
  2. MACD Signal Line: A 9-period EMA of the MACD.
  3. MACD Histogram: The MACD minus the MACD Signal Line.

The MACD indicator is an effective and versatile tool. There are three main ways to interpret the MACD technical analysis indicator, discussed on the following three pages:

  1. Moving Average Crossovers
  2. MACD Histogram
  3. MACD Divergences

Study the much as advised above.

The Forex Market

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

The Forex Market The foreign exchange market is the “place” where currencies are traded. Currency exchanges are important to everyone all over the world whether they realize it or not. Any produce purchased and brought into the country whether it is a piece of cheese or a car, currencies are exchanged during foreign exchange and business. The huge demand for foreign exchange is the reason why the forex market is the largest, most liquid financial market in the world. From 1997 to the end of 2000, daily trading volume from forex trading has surged from 5 billion to 1.5 trillion dollars. Despite this unbelievable growth, the foreign exchange market continues to grow at a phenomenal rate. No other financial market has demonstrated this stellar growth in volume. One unique aspect of this international market is that there is no central marketplace for forex trading. Instead, trade is conducted electronically over-the-counter (OTC), which means that all transactions occur via computer networks between traders around the world, rather than on one centralized exchange. The market is open 24 hours a day, five and a half days a week, and currencies are traded worldwide in the major financial centres of London, New York, Tokyo, Zurich, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris and Sydney – across almost every time zone. This means that when the trading day in the U.S. ends, the forex market begins in Tokyo and Hong Kong. As such, the forex market can be extremely active any time of the day, with price quotes changing constantly. Forex trading is truly one of the best businesses in the world and one of the most profitable, and once you get it right it gives you everything you could wish for. You can run your business from anywhere in the world, as long as you have a laptop/desktop and an internet connection you are ready to make money. Not only will your broker open and close trades with little to no commission they let you have control of large sums of money with little initial investment. You have no office space to rent, no employees to pay and no one to answer to. Yes, forex trading is the ultimate job and there is nothing else quite like it in the world. Forex is the world’s largest and most liquid trading market. Even though it has been somewhat of a loosely guarded secret, every day more and more investors are turning to the all-electronic world of Forex trading for income and investment because of its numerous benefits & advantages over traditional trading vehicles, like stocks, bonds and commodities. When you get this business right, Forex trading can be as easy as picking money up off the floor. Others in the industry have also said “Forex trading is like having an ATM machine on your own computer.” While both of these statements are very possible it is important to keep level headed and not let the pursuit of wealth get in the way of realistic goals. As you will soon discover forex trading is all about discipline and consistency. What FOREX traders do is much less risky than trading currencies on the futures market, much more profitable, and a lot easier than trading stocks and equities. Forex provides the modern day trader with a much better and simpler alternative than stocks. First of all, there are only a few major currencies to trade; the U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, and Swiss Franc are the most popular. A stock trader has to choose from a group of tens of thousands of stocks. This increases the complexity of selecting what to trade. Let’s carry on and have a look at the major currency pairs. Currency Pairs Each currency is paired against another, we make money by predicting whether that currency will gain or lose value against the one it’s paired with. Examples are

AUD/USD

EUR/USD

GBP/JPY

GBP/USD

NZD/USD

USD/CAD

USD/CHF

USD/JPY

EUR/PJY

and a whole lot of them. The first currency in the pair is the base currency. The second currency in the pair is labeled quote or counter currency. Such a quotation depicts how many units of the counter currency are needed to buy one unit of the base currency. Currency pairs are normally denoted in the format: (base currency) / (counter currency) e.g AUD/USD As seen above.

For example the quotation EUR/USD 1.2500 means that one euro is exchanged for 1.25 US dollar. If the quote moves from EUR/USD 1.2500 to EUR/USD 1.2510, the euro is getting stronger and the dollar weaker because you are paying more of USD (dollars) for 1 EUR. On the other hand if the EUR/USD quote moves from 1.2500 to 1.2490 the euro is getting weaker while the dollar is getting stronger because you are paying less USD for 1 EUR.

Pips

A pip is the last decimal place in a quoted price. For instance, if the EUR/JPY moves from 108.15 to 108.16 it has moved 1 pip. Each currency pair will have a different pip value (for instance, the USD/JPY is quoted to the hundredths as 1.30). To obtain the value of a pip for a currency pair, their are 2 formulas. In the case where the USD is quoted first, divide the pip value by the exchange rate and multiply by lot size (pip value = (pip / exchange rate) * lot size) USD/JPY (.01 / 119.80) x 100,000 USD = $8.34 per pip In the case where the USD is quoted 2nd, determine the value of the pip in the foreign currency, and then apply the exchange rate. But you don’t need all that as it is done automatically for you. So don’t crack your brain.

Stops & Stop hunting

Stops are orders set to close your positions if the trade goes against you by the amount of pips you stipulate. I want to take a minute to talk about stops as this is something I see many traders struggling with all the time. You may have heard of stop hunting, it is not a myth, it actually happens although usually not to the extremes many traders talk about. Many of the retail brokers that require only a small deposit to open an account are often not giving you direct access to the forex market as the positions you are trading are too small. Instead they take the other side of the position themselves because it is a fact that the majority of traders lose money overall and the brokers are playing this to their advantage. So you make your small mini lot trade and the broker takes the other side at their dealing desk, you place your stop which the broker can see on their platform and you go about your business. Now it is important that I point out the broker is not targeting your position, there will be thousands of positions with stops in the same place and as price comes within 5 pips or so the broker may manipulate the data feed by 5 pips to take out all these stops. So how do we avoid being at the mercy of the broker? We trade longer term charts and avoid all the stressful day trading systems out there that require small stops. Different traders use stops in different ways, some use stops as protection against a sudden market crash and some don’t use them at all due to suspicion that brokers try to take them out. I personally believe a trade should have a stop placed at a point that gives the trade room to breath and if the trade did go beyond that point, there would be no question that the trade was no longer valid. This is the approach I take with my forex trading and it has served me well, I have a max pip stop I am willing to risk and I do not allow myself to move this stop once it is placed. Many traders fail to realize that trades will not immediately go in your direction all the time, they need breathing space. As soon as I began giving my trades more breathing space I saw my win percentage go through the roof. It’s the whipsaws that get many traders out of the market just before price heads off in the anticipated direction, especially if you are trying to trade the small intraday time frames. The systems presented in this course are designed to give price plenty of breathing space while still allowing us to get a good risk reward ratio on our trading positions. This eliminates the broker trying to take us out and also gives our trades room to move.

Leverage and Lots

Lots

This is the amount invested per trade. It may also be referred to as contract size. The standard size for a lot is $100,000. In the last few years a mini lot size has been introduced of $10,000. Currency spot prices change in pips, which are the smallest increment of that currency. Because these increments are tiny it is desirable to trade large amounts to get larger returns.

Leverage

Leverage is one of the reasons many traders come into the forex market and the reason many traders leave without any money left in their account, many brokers including my own offer up to 200:1 leverage. With leverage of 200:1 you have control of 200 times the money in your account. If you have $1000 in your account you can buy $200,000 using a leverage of 200:1. We will not be using anything remotely like that in this course. High leverage is a killer and can wipe out your account in one trade. Later in the money management section of this manual we will be discussing how to control your risk on each trade so that if the worst case situation happens you can withstand a huge amount of losses without losing your account. Again I DO NOT use high leverage and if you want to survive and build wealth in this business neither should you.I will advice you use 1:100

An early word of caution: Leverage is a double edged sword that can result in high profits or high losses.

Money Management

When I say to many traders “my average risk per trade is about 80 pips” they go white with fear, “surely that is too much risk” they say. Before we go any further I want you to understand no matter if you have a 50 pip stop or a 200 pip stop your risk should never change, you should never risk more than 5% of your account on any one trade and I recommend if you can, try to keep it at 2%. I understand a lot of you may have small trading accounts and you are eager to build it faster so you may want to use 5% until your account grows larger and then reduce your risk. Everyone seems to be talking about money management in the trading world yet very few people put it into practice to make their account grow safely. Everyone’s goal when it comes to trading forex is to make money, but people have different circumstances and different starting capital. Unfortunately most new traders have very low starting capital and very big goals which are not in line with reality. Starting with an account of $1,000 you can not expect to be able to make a living straight away, you must have a little patience and grow your trading account to a stage where you can withdraw a pay check for yourself and still leave some profits for your account to grow slowly. This is the stage many new traders lose patience and over leverage their account resulting in account destruction. You may be surprised how fast your account will grow with slow steady gains on an ongoing basis and compounding your profits.

Risk Calculation

Brokers now offer micro lots which enable us to accurately use a certain percentage of our account on each trade, a micro lot is 0.10c a pip giving us far more flexibility especially for smaller accounts. Let’s run through a quick example using a random $5,436 account. We spot a setup on the EUR/USD and require a 60 pip stop to give our trade plenty of breathing room and get the stop behind the recent resistance level. To find 2% of our account we….. Divide $5436 by 100 then times by 2 = $108.72 which is 2% of the account size. So we can risk $108.72 on this trade, now we need to find out what position size to place on this trade. $108.72 divide by 60 pip stop = $1.81 To find the number of micro lots we divide $1.81 by 0.10c = 18 micro lots. To summarise placing 18 micro lots on this trade, risking 60 pips will risk exactly 2% of our trading account. On the next trade you will calculate this all over again using the new balance on your trading account, if your trade was a success then your new risk will be slightly higher that the previous one. This is how we rapidly build our trading accounts compounding profits and using them to create even more profits. Money management is not only about what to risk on each trade. That alone will not save your bacon if you are a trading maniac who must be involved in the market no matter what. What ever size your trading account is treat it like gold, if you are at all unsure of a trade then skip it, like bus’s there will always be another one along soon enough. You must not feel the need to trade, I very often do not trade Mondays which only leaves 4 days a week to look for setups yet I still turn profit and the more patient I become, the smoother my equity line increases and the more wealth I build.

Risk/Reward Ratio

Risk/reward ratio is very important when trading over a long period of time. Many new traders coming into the forex market fall into the trap of refusing to let their winning trades run. Lets have a look of how that will affect them over time. Trader 1 Risks $100 and takes profit at $25 giving him a risk reward of 4:1 this means that in order for him to break even in the long run he must achieve 80% winning trades. Trader 2 Risks $100 and takes profit at $100 giving him a risk reward of 1:1 this means that in order for him to break even in the long run he must achieve 50% winning trades. Trader 3 Risks $100 and takes profit at $200 giving him a risk reward of 1:2 this means that in order for him to break even in the long run he must only achieve 33% winning trades. Trader 4 Risks $100 and takes profit at $300 giving him a risk reward of 1:3 this means that in order for him to break even in the long run he must only achieve 25% winning trades. Now who do you think is going to succeed in the long run? Surely it is far easier for traders 3 & 4 as they have less pressure to achieve a high win % in order to make money. Are you beginning to see how important this is? Never open a trade if you do not anticipate your trade to gain you at least the same amount as you risked, I prefer to try and go for twice or three times the amount I risk while always moving my stop to break even as soon as I can. We shall deal with Bid, Ask and Spread when we have started the practical lessons, just so you get a grasp.

REQUIREMENTS FOR TRADING

Below is a list of things needed to start currency trading.

1. Learn how the market works. Profitable forex trading requires good knowledge and skills. One needs to understand how to read quotes, place trades, stop losses… All with be treated with diagrammatic illustrations on this site, so just stick to this site as we take you there.

2. A forex trading system/strategies. Many online brokers allow you to open practice accounts before trading with real money. This allows you to develop and test forex trading systems/strategies, You can then pick the best one , that allows you to place more profitable trades. You should develop a trading strategy that works otherwise you will not make profit in forex trading. Not to worry you will learn one or two here. You will be armed with sound knowledge on this site so that you succeed in this market gracefully.

3. An online broker. In order for us to trade the forex market we are required to have a broker. A broker is an individual or firm that acts as the middle man between buyer and seller trading in the forex market. The foreign exchange market is quite similar to the equity markets, except that the majority of forex brokers do not charge a commission. Forex brokers are usually tied to large banks or lending institutions this is because of the huge sums of money traded in the foreign exchange markets. To trade forex, you will need to open an account with a retail broker. Their are several factors to consider when evaluating which broker meets your needs. In the United States a broker should be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a NFA member. The CFTC and NFA were made to protect the public against fraud, manipulation, and abusive trade practices. Look for responsive firms with a clean regulatory history, several years of experience, and a positive reputation. The NFA recommends you read “Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market” before becoming a forex trader.

i Regulation

o Is the broker regulated? If so, by who? What protections does that regulator offer? Do NOT trade or give money to a non-regulated broker

o Check history and complaints with the NFA at www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/ or call (800) 621-3570 o Are funds insured against fraud and bankruptcy?

ii Trading Account

o What is the minimum opening balance?

o Do you earn interest on unused equity (the margin available discussed earlier)?

o What is the initial and maintenance margins on the currencies you want to trade?

iii Execution

o How fast is execution?

o How fast are they to the answer phones and emails?

iv Hidden Areas That Weigh Down A Trader

o How tight is the spread (the difference between bid and ask prices at time of trade)?

o What are the commissions?

v Trading Platform

o How reliable is the software?

o How many currency pairs are available?

o Real time currency quotes

o Any special features

o Web based

o Mobile device access

vi Broker.

o How many years of experience o What styles / systems do they use (eg scalping)?

o What is the brokers reputation (Did you Google the names of the brokerage and broker?)

o What is their track record for the last 5 years, last 3 years, last year, and last month? The CFTC lists 9 tips to avoid fraudulent brokers

1. Stay away from opportunities that seem too good to be true.

2. Avoid any company that predicts or guarantees large profits.

3. Stay Away From Companies That Promise Little or No Financial Risk .

4. Don’t Trade on Margin Unless You Understand What It Means.

5. Question Firms That Claim To Trade in the “Interbank Market” (see above).

6. Be Wary of Sending or Transferring Cash on the Internet, By Mail or Otherwise .

7. Currency Scams Often Target Members of Ethnic Minorities.

8. Be Sure You Get the Company’s Performance Track Record.

9. Don’t Deal With Anyone Who Won’t Give You His Background Don’t just open an account with any broker; carry out a thorough check on your intended broker. A good way to start is via Google, type the name of the broker and the review before clicking on Google search e.g. Alpari uk review.

4 Internet ready computer.

5 Charting Software

In recent years all online brokers have begun to offer their own free charting software built into their trading platform to study the movements of a currency pair, some are good and some leave a lot to be desired. For many years I have used the same broker through Meta Trader 4 charting platform. Meta Trader 4 (or MT4 for short) is used by hundreds of forex brokers, it allows you to access your broker account right from the platform making it easy for you to adjust and track open positions as well as plotting currency movements on multiple charts. Meta Trader 4 also allows you to use custom indicators and alerts, giving you more freedom to do things you enjoy and leaving Meta Trader to alert you when a trade setup occurs. Another great feature of MT4 is if you have a smart phone you can download the platform onto your mobile phone allowing you to check trades and adjust positions on the go, sometimes vital for a trader on the go. I use alpari uk as my broker through the MT4 platform. They have been very reliable for me using the trading techniques presented in this manual No matter which broker you choose you will find someone who claims “they are not an honest broker,” this is simply due to the fact that when people loose at forex (especially newbie’s) they naturally must find something to blame it on. In my experience if you are trading 4 hour charts and above, you have far less to worry about. Traders trying to scalp the forex market on the 1 minute charts are the ones who tend to get the bad end of the stick very often due to the nature of their rapid buying and selling of currencies. Now that you’ve acquainted yourself with forex trading basics, move on to the practical class section where you will learn, how to open a demo account and place your first order before moving on. Forex trading school is dedicated to seeing you advance from a mere novice to a pro. In Our next class we shall learn how to download, install trading terminal, open a demo account, place and close our first trade.